Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
